Boeing's 2012 Current Marke Outlook

Thanks to Leeham News I've read about the recent update made by Boeing about its market forecast for the next 20 years. The outlook is not very detailed, but the big headlines are quite interesting. The full debrief will be available by 5th July, but I will provide as well my very first view after having a glance of what's available:

• Focus is China and Asia market. Asia Pacific will be covering 35% of the market (it is not clear if we are talking about 2031 market of 2012-2031 market). What's the outlook from Boeing for capturing such market with COMAC in the game?
• Fleet will be around 40000 airplanes at 2031, that means 21000 of them coming from market grow which is seen as 60% of demand. So total demand will be close to 35000. Which is 20% more optimistic than Airbus' previous year outlook.
• Boeing's view is that the current product market sharing is heading in higher frequency and smaller size. Taking from Airbus and Boeing historical deliveries and orders we can see that the market share (former deliveries) of SA is close to 47%, and the current orders in the backlog show a market share of 71%. From the product demand in the last years I think it is confirmed that smaller aircraft demand is growing. The comment about low level of demand of very large aircraft seems to be sensitive, and from my point of view, very large aircraft was a fashion in the early days of B747, shrinking now down. This raises a question to me, were B787 and A350XWB an early move instead of a new SA?
• Mobile, the hot topic of the week, the concern from Boeing is the efficiency in having 4 final assembly lines. However, this statement is not confirmed with data, if each FAL is producing 40 airplanes per month, where is the efficiency limit, is it 20 or 100?, has Boeing performed such analysis and share the data? Moreover, how your measure efficiency, at the moment Airbus is having 3 final assembly lines for SA for one in Boeing, but the backlog of Airbus orders is 3300 airplanes and Boeing's is 2600, so Airbus product is more competitive, that includes airplane performance, cost and political advantage for very similar products. Who is more efficient? (ok, next step is knowing the margin of the airplane but in terms of marketing Airbus is on top)

Via: Leeham News