Sobre el valor de Bankia

Bueno, como dije en la introducción alguna de las entradas la haré en español, dependerá un poco del público objetivo de lo que escriba.

Ayer mismo se publicó la evaluación de Bankia por parte de diferentes auditores externos contratados por el Gobierno, la evaluación arrojó un valor negativo de más de 13000 millones de euros, sin embargo las acciones de Bankia no han bajado significativamente desde los 0.91 euros de inicio.

Básicamente, el gobierno ha pedido la evaluación para saber el precio de Bankia, lo cual indicará qué porcentaje de la entidad se quedará si hace una ampliación de capital. Si el valor es negativo entonces, cualquier euro que introduzca será el 100% del capital. Es decir, si yo como particular introduzco 1 euro, me debería convertir en el mayor accionista de la entidad, ya que he introducido más de lo que vale la misma.

Sin embargo, el mercado no está de acuerdo, mientras escribo esta entrada la acción sube desde el valor mínimo de esta mañana de 0.875 euros por acción hasta 0.896. Es decir, el mercado no acepta la evaluación y sigue pensando que la entidad tiene un valor positivo aunque bajo.

Al final, cuando se hace una valoración de una empresa se tienen en cuenta varias cosas, y una de las más importantes es como se espera que evolucione en un futuro la entidad, en función de esa expectativa surgirá un valor u otro.

La pregunta que hago es, ¿quién paga el trabajo de los tasadores? ¿cuáles son sus incentivos? Es Bankia quien paga su trabajo, el Estado o Europa. El mensaje actual para los inversores que acudieron a la ampliación de capital es que todo lo que han invertido se pierde.

Via: Finanzas.com

A320 at Mobile?

A post from FlightBlogger published today (28th June) declares some rumors about a new Airbus assembly line at Mobile, Alabama. Expectation from FlightBlogger is that the production will grow to 60 aircrafts per month, while current production up to May 2012 at Airbus is around 36 per month. As per market forecast of Airbus there will be in the next 20 years a demand for 19165 airplanes and 23370 as per Boeing expectations.

Typical ramp-up for a new assembly line will take close to 2 or 3 years for fully operational capacity at a level of 60 aircrafts (still will be interesting to see if a new transport system will be implace instead of Beluga, or a number increase of these old aircrafts)

Depending of how you make this forecast, we will end in a total production during the next 20 years of 13400 aircrafts. Based on previous forecasts Airbus is targetting between 57-70% of market share in that segment. Knowing that Bombardier and COMAC are potentially new comers to this business segment, the strategy of Airbus is very aggresive.

In parallel, Boeing is having a lack of experience in working outside USA, any subsidiary of Boeing is focused in a very single skill or it's part of the supply chain. What will be so the answer of Boeing if Mobile's plant is finally built? My expectation will be that Boeing will react in a similar way, in line with their bigger market grow expectation, but expanding their plants at USA and not going abroad.

Airplane Market Forecast

I have been recently surfing around Boeing and Airbus webpages, trying to take a look to the different global market forecast of both companies, from my point of view results are very optimistic at Boeing and slightly conservative at Airbus.

The report from airbus is very interesting and the methodology highly detailed, I recommend spend some time to read it. Seems to be a model with a lot of historical improvements within and very mature, including in the model economic grow, travel needs from consumer, urbanization of population (especially at developing countries) and ending with airport analysis. However, I've got some remarks to the model that has been developed along years at Airbus:

•  Low cost airlines at Europe are still in growing mode. Going to page 86 of Airbus report, it can be seen how from a low market share they have reach the level of 50% and are still growing. Moreover, global market is growing in such direction like AirAsia (with around 60 airplanes has already put in place a big order of 200 NEO) and LionAir (is increasing from 80 with 200 MAX). It doesn't seem that these structural changes in the airlines business model are not considered, as will create in the future a higher relative demand at single aisle segment, with reduction of hub oriented travelling.
• At 1992 European Union's deregulation create an important grow of new low cost airlines, the example is the important grow of Ryanair from 90s, however, their actual grow was notable during early 2000s. As EU-US Open Skies treatment was signed in 2007 I would expect that some airlines will position themselves in low cost model but flying between both continents requiring bigger airplanes than traditional low cost airlines. On top, there's a tendency of deregulation across the world, apart from EU and US. Relative grow of wide bodies is also expected.
• Recently, airlines are in a process of consolidation (10 years to now... recent for airplane industry), the fall of national airlines... pressure on prices over both competitors shall be also considered. Lower price, higher number.
• Finally, Airbus is moving to VIP airplanes, Corporate Jetliners and Military ones (refuelling MRTT), but noting is included about these segment on the airplane forecast.

All previous comments can be added as potential scenarios, the document is just showing a single scenario, my remarks can be included in optimistic or pessimistic scenarios.

As a conclusion, I would say that the report is very interesting and seems to include years of experience on it. Airplane industry is growing at a single digit factor, far from internet business like Smartphones, but still is one of the biggest sectors in the world economy and clearly a technology driver.

 

Linkedin and Blogger

The blog framework that I am using in this blog is Blogger from Google, the other option I was considering was to use WordPress. In a previous one I was using it instead of Blogger but my experience during that time was not very possitive as I was expecting, probably due to the installation server. However the fact is that the response time of my WordPress based blog was not good enough and I found some funny bugs I was living with.

I decided to switch to a Google based blog for a main reason: google. Indeed, my email, my feeder, my youtube account... everything connected to a single profile, one login and access to all applications.

Also, we can find easy links to other social networks, like Twitter or Linkedin (and Facebook, but honestly I don't care about this one), At LinkedIn you are able to link directly at your profile your published posts, any new one will appear in front of your contacts at profile level.

For making it real just do the following at LinkedIn:

• Edit your profile
• Go to application section (it was the last one in my profile)
• Add the application BlogLink
• Finally, update your webpages at your profile adding your blog link.

It took me just 1 hour to set up the blog, adapt to my preferences and configure other applications linked to it.

Hello World!

After being almost 2 years busy without any single minute of free time, I'm starting again to write a blog. This is simply the very first post for means of testing the blog features in blogger.
As you can see I will use as default language english, however, as my native language is Spanish, some post will be written in such beautiful language.

See u soon.