A post from FlightBlogger published today (28th June) declares some rumors about a new Airbus assembly line at Mobile, Alabama. Expectation from FlightBlogger is that the production will grow to 60 aircrafts per month, while current production up to May 2012 at Airbus is around 36 per month. As per market forecast of Airbus there will be in the next 20 years a demand for 19165 airplanes and 23370 as per Boeing expectations.
Typical ramp-up for a new assembly line will take close to 2 or 3 years for fully operational capacity at a level of 60 aircrafts (still will be interesting to see if a new transport system will be implace instead of Beluga, or a number increase of these old aircrafts)
Depending of how you make this forecast, we will end in a total production during the next 20 years of 13400 aircrafts. Based on previous forecasts Airbus is targetting between 57-70% of market share in that segment. Knowing that Bombardier and COMAC are potentially new comers to this business segment, the strategy of Airbus is very aggresive.
In parallel, Boeing is having a lack of experience in working outside USA, any subsidiary of Boeing is focused in a very single skill or it's part of the supply chain. What will be so the answer of Boeing if Mobile's plant is finally built? My expectation will be that Boeing will react in a similar way, in line with their bigger market grow expectation, but expanding their plants at USA and not going abroad.
Typical ramp-up for a new assembly line will take close to 2 or 3 years for fully operational capacity at a level of 60 aircrafts (still will be interesting to see if a new transport system will be implace instead of Beluga, or a number increase of these old aircrafts)
Depending of how you make this forecast, we will end in a total production during the next 20 years of 13400 aircrafts. Based on previous forecasts Airbus is targetting between 57-70% of market share in that segment. Knowing that Bombardier and COMAC are potentially new comers to this business segment, the strategy of Airbus is very aggresive.
In parallel, Boeing is having a lack of experience in working outside USA, any subsidiary of Boeing is focused in a very single skill or it's part of the supply chain. What will be so the answer of Boeing if Mobile's plant is finally built? My expectation will be that Boeing will react in a similar way, in line with their bigger market grow expectation, but expanding their plants at USA and not going abroad.
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