Today I had a quick conversation and a question was on the table: how long will take for a newcomer in the larger than 100 passenger airplane segment for being able to face both Airbus and Boeing?
Some context for starting, the first Airbus' airplane was the A300, with the first deliver at 1974. Airbus was a joint venture between European companies that were having experience in a smaller segment of airplanes. On the other side, Boeing was founded at 1916 and has been manufacturing aircrafts since the beginning of aviation. The B707 was the first successful commercial jet and was introduced in 1958. At the introduction of A300, Boeing already delivered several B747.
We can say that the situation at 1974 was similar to the one I would like to answer, a newcomer in the market with previous experience in a different segment at the same industry trying to enter in a market dominated by one competitor.
Reuters has prepared a graphic summarizing the evolution in deliveries from both manufacturers:
Right, until 2002 Airbus was not able to obtain the same market share as Boeing. 28 years in total. This number is giving us a reference of how long will take to a new competitor to enter in the market, with one remark: both manufacturers were protected by their own Governments and the country airlines were supporting them.
So, my answer to the question of how long will take to a new competitor to enter in the market, my answer is: 20 years. Given that the newcomer has already got experience in the industry in a different segment.
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